Hear and Now - Preferred Podcasts

Arresting Aphorisms

  • "You can't hold a man down without staying down with him." (Booker T. Washington)
  • "Mishaps are like knives, that either serve us or cut us, as we grasp them by the blade or by the handle." (James Russell Lowell)
  • "Vision is the art of seeing things invisible." (Jonathan Swift)
  • "Beauty without grace is the hook without the bait." (Emerson)
  • "What I like in a good author is not what he says, but what he whispers." (Logan Pearsall Smith)
  • "The sole substitute for an experience which we have not ourselves lived through is art and literature." (Alexander Solzhenitsyn)
  • "Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration." (Thomas Edison)
  • "My country is the world and my religion is to do good." (Thomas Paine)
  • "Human felicity is produced not so much by great pieces of good fortune that seldom hapen, as by little advantages that occur every day." (Benjamin Franklin)
  • "The basic difference between an ordinary man and a warrior is that a warrior takes everything as a challenge while an ordinary man takes everything either as a blessing or a curse." (Carlos Castaneda)
  • "Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted." (Albert Einstein)
  • "Throw your heart over the fence and the rest will follow." (Norman Vincent Peale)
  • "The palest ink is clearer than the fondest memory." (Chinese Proverb)
  • "Think like a man of action, act like a man of thought." (Henri Bergson)
  • "History doesn't repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes." (Mark Twain)
  • "We do not remember days; we remember moments." (Cesare Pavese)
  • "The only way to have a friend is to be one." (Emerson)
  • "The only way around is through." (Robert Frost)
  • "Mountaintops inspire leaders but valleys mature them." (Winston Churchill)
  • "Friendships are like money - easier made then kept." (Samuel Butler)
  • "Black words on a white page are the soul laid bare." (Guy de Maupassant)
  • "A man is wealthy in proportion to the things he can do without." (Epicurus)
  • "Mistakes are the portals of discovery." (James Joyce)
  • "Happiness is wanting what you have, not getting what you want." (Sheryl Crow)
  • "Experience is simply the name we give our mistakes." (Oscar Wilde)
  • "Your worst enemy cannot harm you as much as your own thoughts, unguarded. But once mastered, no one can help you as much." (Buddha)
  • "You understand life backward but you live life forward." (Soren Kierkegaard)
  • "Love decreases when it ceases to increase." (Chateaubriand)
  • "I quote others only the better to express myself." (Montaigne)
  • "Be quick .. but don't hurry." (John Wooden)
  • "Pain is just weakness leaving the body." (Nike Slogan)
  • Happiness = Performance - Expectations
  • "It is never too late to be what you might have been." (George Eliot)
  • "Always make new mistakes." (Esther Dyson)
  • "People more often need to be reminded than informed." (Samuel Butler)
  • "Old people are fond of giving good advice; it consoles them for no longer being capable of setting a bad example." (La Rochefoucauld)
  • "History doesn't repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes." (Mark Twain)
  • "We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, therefore, is not an act, but a habit." (Aristotle)
  • "Yesterday is history. Tomorrow is a mystery. Today is a gift." (Eleanor Roosevelt)
  • "We do not remember days ... we remember moments." (Cesare Pavese)

Books marinating in my mind ...

  • David Allen: Ready for Anything: 52 Productivity Principles for Work and Life

    David Allen: Ready for Anything: 52 Productivity Principles for Work and Life
    Allen is the productivity guru behind 'GTD' (the appropriately-named 'Getting Things Done' system). Far more than a simple recipe on how to optimize your To-Do Lists, this very readable book walks you through the philosophy behind his approach. This is a must-read for GTD devotees, but also an extremely useful primer for anyone who seeks to be more effective. His simple premise - that one's ability to be productive is directly proportional to one's ability to relax - is both elegant and powerful.

  • Maureen Dowd: Are Men Necessary?: When Sexes Collide

    Maureen Dowd: Are Men Necessary?: When Sexes Collide
    Dowd - one of the few women to have broken through the 'glass ceiling' to gain a coveted column in the New York Times - serves up her familiar fare of quick wit, rapier-sharp ripostes and cutting political commentary. While there are a number of gems here, the book disappointingly ends on a flat - instead of a high - note. Still, the tome is worth reading for her incisive insights into modern sexual politics alone.

  • Daniel Gilbert: Stumbling on Happiness

    Daniel Gilbert: Stumbling on Happiness
    This book has less to do with happiness and more to do with perception, but I won't quibble with its' ultimate value to the reader. Daniel Gilbert lays bare the fascinating process by which we perceive, recall and reflect on the events that dot our lives. In doing so, he disabuses us of some of our most cherished notions about our memories. As he pithily points out, 'perceptions are portraits, not photographs.' You won't look at how you remember quite the same again after digesting this enthralling work.

  • Jillian Straus: Unhooked Generation: The Truth About Why We're Still Single

    Jillian Straus: Unhooked Generation: The Truth About Why We're Still Single
    It's become a trite cliche today to remark that marriage has waned as the premier social institution. If people wed at all, they marry later and for shorter periods - certainly not for richer or for poorer, as in our parents' day. This book goes a long way in explaining why ours has become the 'unhooked' generation, by shedding light on contributing factors such as the collapse of courtship and the emergence of our multiple-choice society.

  • Nancy Etcoff: Survival of the Prettiest: The Science of Beauty

    Nancy Etcoff: Survival of the Prettiest: The Science of Beauty
    Ever wonder what informs our impressions of beauty? I did, until I devoured this book. It turns out that those notions are hardwired in the brain and reinforced by the forces of evolution. The author marshalls an impressive array of biological, psychological and anthropological arguments to explain that our attraction to beauty is, in the final analysis, driven by our desire to successfully pass on our genes. Beauty, therefore, is in fact much more than skin deep ...

  • Robert Baer: Blow the House Down: A Novel

    Robert Baer: Blow the House Down: A Novel
    Baer's book of fiction blows the doors off the CIA and lets the reader inside the rarified air of intelligence analysts, spy tradescraft and convoluted geopolitical intrigue. The author writes with an arresting authencity, gained as much from his prose as his past as a twenty veteran of the CIA's Directorate of Operations. Many an armchair secret agent will devour this novel in one sitting ~

  • Thomas Friedman: The World is Flat

    Thomas Friedman: The World is Flat
    Friedman's central thesis - that globalization creates a flat playing field where your competitor can be next door or on the next continent - is more of an evolutionary than revolutionary insight. However, he is a master at making complex matters appear simple, and this book's powerful conclusions will scare you as much as educate you.

  • William Gibson: Pattern Recognition

    William Gibson: Pattern Recognition
    My introduction to the man who invented 'The Matrix' was this book, his first foray into contemporary (as opposed to science) fiction. Gibson proves to be as shrewd an observer of today's technological dystopia as he was a prognosticator of tomorrow in 'Neuromancer.'

  • David Brooks: On Paradise Drive: How We Live Now (And Always Have) in the Future Tense

    David Brooks: On Paradise Drive: How We Live Now (And Always Have) in the Future Tense
    Brooks understands and deconstructs modern Middle America better than any writer today. This book peels back the layers to reveal the lives and longings of minivan-driving, church-going, cul-de-sac living suburbanites in all their glory.

  • Barry Schwartz: The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less (P.S.)

    Barry Schwartz: The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less (P.S.)
    This book will change your life - if you let it. It should be on the core curriculum for everyone living in our 21st Century world of the Long Tail and limitless choice.

  • Richard Linklater: Before Sunrise and Before Sunset

    Richard Linklater: Before Sunrise and Before Sunset
    I love reading screenplays from dialogue-driven movies. This anthology of the scripts from the two 'Before' films will not disappoint, with many a profound observation on life, love and longing proferred here by Linklater's two protagonists.

  • Thomas de Zengotita: Mediated

    Thomas de Zengotita: Mediated
    'Mediated' will help you make sense of the MySpace Generation. De Zengotita explains how so much of our existence is intermediated by representations of reality, and the consequences this holds for both our society and our self-conscious. This books offers up fascinating insights into our mediated age, and you won't walk through life quite the same way again after reading it.

  • Daniel H. Pink: A Whole New Mind

    Daniel H. Pink: A Whole New Mind
    This books is the perfect follow-up to reading The World is Flat. Friedman's opus frightens you into thinking that your job can and will be outsourced in a 'flat' world. Pink issues a persuasive manifesto for avoiding that fate, imploring one to develop the "right-brain" qualities of inventiveness, empathy, joyfulness and meaning to complement the "left brain" capabilities that powered the Information Age. Read this book to enhance the skills that can't be so easily replicated and outsourced ...

  • Chuck Klosterman: Sex, Drugs and Cocoa Puffs

    Chuck Klosterman: Sex, Drugs and Cocoa Puffs
    Klosterman wields one of the truly most unique voices in social commentary today. Only he can establish the thread leading from Puck on MTV's 'The Real World' to Zack on 'Saved by the Bell'. Klosterman comes off as a pop culture polymath in this sweeping trip across the mass media landscape.

  • James Geary: The World in a Phrase

    James Geary: The World in a Phrase
    This compact little book charts the history of the aphorism, perhaps the perfect philosophical medium for the MySpace Generation. Along the way, Geary enlightens us with his lifetime's worth of collecting the pithiest turns of phrase. You will no doubt marvel, as I did, at how aphorists succeed in suffusing one small sentence with so much meaning ...

  • Chris Anderson: The Long Tail

    Chris Anderson: The Long Tail
    It's a good measure of this book's influence that Anderson's central metaphor has already penetrated into society's common lexicon of tech-savvy terms. This book does more than just popularize a phrase, however; it persuasively and painstakingly postulates the end of the mass market and the rise of selling, as the author puts it, "less to more people." One must read this book to understand the Internet's impact on the future of commerce itself, let alone what it might do to your business.

  • Frans Johansson: The Medici Effect

    Frans Johansson: The Medici Effect
    This books provides both epiphany and exasperation in almost equal measure. On the one hand, Johansson piques our interest with the catchy central insight that combining fields and concepts leads to a boost in creativity. Sadly, this point is made over and over again, rendering his book somewhat of an intellectual run-on-sentence. This would have made an absolutely brilliant essay if he had distilled his message rather than doubled-down on it.

Pop Philosophy Preferred

  • Tim Ferriss
    I love Tim's concepts of 'lifestyle design' and 'going on a media diet'. His advice and hacks on how to simplify your life are a welcome respite to our hyper-mediated world.
  • Thomas Friedman
    The Walter Lippmann of this generation. Whether you agree with his views or not, he is the most influential pundit today on the two issues that matters most in the modern world: globalization and the Middle East.
  • SHardy, Creative Generalist
    A genuinely inter-disciplinary intellectual - in the most positive sense of the term.
  • Merlin Mann
    One of the first - and best - Life Hackers out there.
  • Mark Cuban
    This Internet business pioneer and owner of the Dallas Mavericks also happens to be one of the most original - and outspoken - thinkers in media and technology today.
  • Malcolm Gladwell
    Gladwell practically invented the entire category of books that I devour with his seminal work, The Tipping Point.
  • Jon Kay
    He will come to be known someday as Canada's George Will. In the meantime, he influences friends and foes alike from his perch as Comments Editor at The National Post.
  • Fareed Zakaria
    Anyone who has watched 'This Week with George Stephanopoulos' (c'mon, you know you want to admit it!) has seen Zakaria consistently demonstrate his lucidity, eloquence and coherent world view. Not many people can go toe-to-toe with George Will and emerge unscathed, but he does it every week. Oh, in his spare time he is the Editor of Newsweek International, too ...
  • David Brooks
    Today's most trenchant social and political analyst.

January 2008

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31    

Recent Posts

Powered by TypePad

December 10, 2007

The Importance of Planning Exits rather than Entrances: Ending with the Beginning in Mind

I came across a thought-provoking Moet & Chandon advertisement recently (shocking, I know) where two impossibly glamourous young model-types are pictured leaving a limousine with a magnum of the eponymous champagne. The tag line reads:

Turn an Exit into an Entrance. Be Fabulous.*

It was the first time that I came across a perfect summation of the counter-intuitive philosophy that I've proselytized for years, namely that exits are often more important than entrances.

Let me explain. People frequently go to great lengths to plan their entrances, but they almost never give thought to their exits. Perhaps this is driven by the belief that you never get a second chance to make a first impression, as the saying goes. But what we often forget is that you never get a second chance to make a final impression, either. What makes the latter in some ways more critical than the former is that we are usually given opportunities, over time, to reinforce or - if need be - reverse the impact of an entrance. We are not afforded that luxury with our exits, however. Our last act is, in fact, the last word.

I've been thinking a lot lately about endings. Perhaps it's because I experienced the passing of a loved one recently, and the reality of her being gone is still being absorbed. As someone put it well, I will never get over her departure, but I will start to get used to it. While she didn't get to completely stage manage her exit, she clearly had put a great deal of thought into the way she wanted to leave, as well as what she left behind. She understood that those final acts would serve as her adieu, and that those statements, both verbal and symbolic, would echo beyond her earthly lifetime.

Unfortunately, many of us fail to have that foresight. Most of us forget the importance of the final frame. We focus almost exclusively on the opening credits in the scenes of life.

The primacy of entrances over exits is a long-standing component of conventional wisdom, even if it is fundamentally ill-conceived. Nearly every aspect of public and private life, both past and present, reinforces this notion.

In the political square, for example, elected officials have 'advance' people who arrive well before they do to map out, in meticulous detail, every aspect of their entrances. Presidents give Inaugural addresses every four years but rarely, if ever, make as much-ballyhooed farewell speeches. In the run-up to next year's presidential elections, we've been treated to a meticulously staged-managed declaration of candidacy by Barack Obama, but I doubt that we'll see a similar spectacle if he drops out of contention.

History offers many of the same examples of this error. General Dwight David Eisenhower spent almost 3 years devising the amphibious D-Day invasion in Normandy - the opening of the Western front in World War II - but it fell to General George Marshall to cobble together his plan for the reconstruction of Europe in a few short months. Closer to today, US military commanders carefully choreographed the commencement of combat operations (the 'Shock and Awe' phase) in the recent Iraq war but failed to formulate so much as an outline of a strategy for the occupation afterwards.

On a more personal level, people succumb to this same strategic misstep frequently as well. We fret over first dates but end entire relationships with something as desultory as a text message. We prepare fastidiously for an interview and dress to impress on our first day at a new office, but we quit jobs on a whim and slink out of a company, hoping not to have to honor our two weeks' notice. In an unintended irony, we labor over and spend lavishly on weddings, our introductions to married life, but leave both the details and the debt of our funerals largely unarticulated and unaccounted for.

Indeed, there is an instinctive and, some might say, intellectual bias towards beginnings. Even the great Aristotle wrote over two Millennia ago that "well begun is half done." At the same time, however, we all probably intuitively suspect how important exits are to forming that last - and lasting - impression. But do we realize just how much weight those final moments carry? Probably not.

Cognitive psychology is crystal clear on the subject, however. One of the most influential books I ever read, The Paradox of Choice by Barry Schwartz, makes a powerful and impassioned argument about the 'tyranny' of too much choice. In building his very persuasive case, Dr. Schwartz introduces us to a psychological Power Law called the Peak | End Rule. First discovered by Nobel-prize winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman, the principle states that "what we remember about the pleasurable quality of our past experiences is almost entirely determined by two things: how the experiences felt when they were at their peak (best or worst), and how they felt when they ended. This 'peak-end' rule is what we use to summarize the experience, and then we rely on that summary later to remind ourselves of how the experience felt." Simply put, our entire recollection of an event, a period of time, a relationship or even a person can come down, in large measure, to how we felt at the zenith or nadir of the experience and especially at its' conclusion.

Would it were that this was the only psychological force at play in making endings matter. The more we learn about how we think, the more it becomes apparent that perception and memory are fickle and partially false constructs. "Memories - especially memories of experiences - are notoriously unreliable. Perceptions are portraits, not photographs,", as Daniel Gilbert put it in his recent best-seller, Stumbling on Happiness.

In some ways, this should not surprise us. The faithful representation of all that we've seen and felt would take up terabytes of a 'human hard drive'. How, as Gilbert asks, "do we cram that vast universe into the relatively small storage compartment between our ears?" The answer is that "the elaborate tapestry of our experience is not stored in memory - at least not in its entirety. Rather, it is compressed for storage by first being reduced to a few critical threads ... or a small set of of key features. Later, when we want to remember our experience, our brains quick reweave the tapestry by fabricating - not by actually retrieving - the bulk of the information that we experience as a memory."

What this means is that those 'snapshots' in our mind, the seemingly oh-so-vivid memories, should be more properly viewed as impressionist paintings rather than high-resolution photographs. What's more, as we have learned through the Peak | End Rule, exits shape and 'paint' those perceptions, and in turn they inform the interpretations that we mistake for memories. We "misremember the past", in effect, and exits have a direct influence on that process.

Clearly, our emphasis on entrances is not serving our best interests. What can and should we do? Simple - we ought to put as much time and thought into our exits as we do our introductions. We should end with the beginning in mind.

An exit is a passage, after all, from one state to another. We need to start by recognizing that every ending is actually an opening of sorts - the start of the period of time where memory and revisionism 'reweaves' the tapestry of events that just happened. Seen in this light, the end is really prologue to a perpetual epilogue, whereby the 'ending' we thought that we experienced is actually constantly being rewritten and reviewed.

So how does one put this 'Exit-tential' philosophy into practice? First, you should focus on how you want the encounter you're ending to be remembered. I call this legacy thinking, and it should - to a greater or lesser extent - suffuse many aspects of your previously entrance-centered existence. When you prepare for your life's set pieces, ponder on how you can better dictate their perceived denouement. Approach each concluding stage - no matter how anodyne or seemingly small - the way presidents attack their final terms in office, obsessed with what historians will write of them.

This probably all sounds highfalutin and hard to accomplish, but it's actually easier than you think. The next time you move on from a job, take the time to tie up all the loose ends and exit on a high note. When you terminate a relationship with a girlfriend, find the feelings to do it properly, respectfully and sensitively. As you leave a party, set aside a moment to say goodbye to everyone to whom you talked (and especially the hosts).

To some, this might seem to be common decency and | or common sense. No argument from me there. However, these simple gestures are sadly infrequent in our increasingly ill-mannered world. Moreover, they represent small but significant steps towards a new level of thinking that factors in the epilogues to one's entrances.

This approach can be applied at a very granular level. When you are leaving a place where you've just visited friends, give them a goodbye call from the airport before your flight boards and let them know how much you appreciated the time that you spent together. Try to close out cafe conversations with confidantes as you would write a conclusion to an essay, capturing key ideas and charting the date for the next chat.

A lot of this must appear absurd, and on some level I can see why. However, we all recognize that when an event or experience is well-ended we appreciate the difference. When rock god Bono departs the stage after a live concert, he and U2 have fine-tuned their finales so well that they simultaneously satisfy their audience with at least one encore, while still leaving them wanting more. When Jerry Seinfeld concludes a comedy set, he does so as the words - and the raucous laughter - of his last great joke linger in the air.

Jacqueline Kennedy understood this reality, even in her moment of maximum grief. She carefully choreographed her husband and assassinated president John F. Kennedy's state funeral, down to the last decisive detail of having the coffin, draped with the Stars and Stripes, laying on a gun carriage drawn by six grey horses while a black riderless horse pranced along behind. That iconic image, along with that of the slain leader's casket lying in state in the Capitol Rotunda, simultaneously served to give the country ceremonial closure while cementing JFK's Camelot legacy. Of course, Mrs. Kennedy was simply taking a page from ancient history and the Egyptians in particular, who perfected the glorious goodbye with their elaborate tombs and pyramids to honor their fallen pharaohs.

These, then, are examples of graceful and well-considered exits. There are others. Some industries and disciplines incorporate this thinking into their orthodoxy. Entrepreneurs and venture capitalists talk about having 'exit strategies' for their companies and investments. The language of theatre, too, has included the idea of 'exit, stage right' in its vernacular. Presidents, as well, are preoccupied by perpetuity and often engage in a flurry of activity towards the ends of their tenures in order to shape their legacies.

As mere mortals, maybe we don't need to ponder our place in history. But we ought to turn a wider-angle lens on life, look beyond our natural bias towards beginnings and plan the postscripts to our experiences. We need to stumble through fewer emergency exits, and compose more carefully crafted epilogues.

What makes an excellent exit, in my opinion? First, one must wrap up loose ends, putting a period at the end of the metaphorical sentence. Second, one should leave a lasting and positive impression, so that their lingering thought of you is ultimately a flattering but not fleeting one. Finally, a perfect postscript brings with it classy closure.

Endings matter, and the sooner we realize this and respond accordingly the better off we'll be. Even ostensibly 'final' exits aren't really final, though (Funerals aren't the last time you find yourself thinking of someone, for instance). They are more properly viewed as transitions rather than finales. In some ways, every end is a beginning. It's the start of the period that follows the one you just concluded. Endings always seem to be followed by epilogues, which then serve as prologues themselves. Today, more than ever, everything seems to be cyclical, if not circular. This philosophical fatalism should not numb one to the importance of leaving a mark when you leave, though. Instead, it should embolden you to compose every conclusion with a coda, so that you don't leave up to chance the legacy you're about to create.

If Stephen Covey made famous the mantra to "begin with the end in mind" as one of his sacrosanct Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, I'd like to add (and perhaps memorialize) an eighth:"end with the beginning in mind". Keep an eye on your personal postscript. Practice legacy thinking, but start today. Don't just leave - depart. Don't just end - climax. Don't just stop - culminate. Conclude with a crescendo, not with a clunk. Take time to formulate your final impression.

I'll leave you to ponder these provocative words from Mary, Queen of Scots, perhaps the original 'Exit Strategist', as they sum up rather succinctly my sentiments and put an elegant, if figurative, period on this peroration:

"In my end is my beginning."

The End. (or is it?)

January 24, 2007

The return of History

I was having lunch in a Persian restaurant in London with my Nigerian friend Obi the other day when I had an epiphany of sorts. It wasn't a realization about globalization, though by the opening line of my post it could very well have been. Rather, a lightning bolt struck when Obi described to me the qualities he looked for in potential recruits for the unusual investment firm in which he is a partner. His company is "the largest - and sometimes only - foreign portfolio investor in many of the markets of sub-Saharan Africa." Obi and his colleagues spend their time analyzing corporate, economic and political information in that area of the world, in the hopes that this will help them make money for their clients.

I should point out at this juncture that Obi is not your normal investment analyst or fund manager. Far from being maniacally focused on making money, he is more of a Renaissance man of rare ability and kaleidoscopic interests. Obi is a medical doctor who can extemporize for hours about politics - from the sub-Saharan variety to Britain and America's arcane political systems - who discovered a zeal for corporate finance while doing an MBA at London Business School. We met there, and I've enjoyed his company tremendously - and been enlightened by his broad ranging insights - ever since.

While he and I chatted over lunch that day, I asked him what types of people he sought out to join his firm. After all, few people had his rare combination of medical, business and geopolitical knowledge; surely, there weren't many other 'Obis' out there to snap up for the company. Given that, I expected him to say that they hired either people familiar with Africa and its' public companies to whom they could teach corporate finance skills, or clever manipulators of the Black-Scholes options pricing model (an abstruse corporate finance tool) who could be instructed in the ways of the Saharan continent. To my great surprise, Obi responded that while both financial analysis abilities and knowledge in African affairs were valued assets in a potential recruit, the most critical requirement for him was an appreciation for ... history.

I was astounded, and it must have been apparent by my reaction since Obi went on to explain why. It all made perfect sense after he did, too. In a nutshell, the landscape of public companies in Africa today resemble, in an approximate sense, the state of corporate America at the beginning of the 20th century. The uber-corporations that stand astride the globe today began the last century as family-owned companies started in small towns (such as Sam Walton's Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart). As they grew into the behemoths they have become, they passed through predictable - and well documented - stages of development and growth. As Obi pointed out, looking at Africa in 2007 is not unlike looking at America in 1907. Consequently, predicting the commercial 'future' in Africa - identifying the right companies and industries in which to invest - has a lot more to do with history and less to do with finance or, to a certain extent, local realities. Obi punctuated his point by adding matter-of-factly, "face it, Ion: there is very little today that is actually new." Cue the lightning bolt here ...

Of course, he was right, and not just about history's applicability to business but to all aspects of life. Every generation tends to think - often through an intoxicating combination of naivete and self-absorption - that the challenges they face are completely unique and unparalleled. While most people concede the existence of historical antecedents, few actually accept the proposition that progress is more of a wheel than a line - that when we experience change it is more often than not as a repetition of history rather than a completely new story.

Take globalization, for example. Authors have written reams about the impact of this 'new' phenemenon. One of my favorite authors, Thomas Friedman, wrote two excellent tomes on the subject, The Lexus and The Olive Tree and the more recent The World is Flat. Both books gained renown for performing the literary equivalent of capturing the lightning of globalization in a bottle. Friedman - and authors like him - have done much to help the lay person understand globalization, but they have also contributed to the common misperception that somehow this is a new development. Globalization - even as we know it - has been a rising tide of change at least since Jean-Baptiste Colbert, the architect of Mercantilism, imported Venetian glass and Flemish tapestries to France in the mid 17th century. Some more imaginative historians trace its' roots all the way back to the Mongol Empire and the cross-continental capital and culture flows that stemmed from the Silk Road trade. Regardless of its' actual starting point, globalization is neither new nor a particularly revolutionary phenemenon. However, the concept is often denuded from proper historical context and portrayed in the media today as both unfamiliar and unprecedented.

The vast majority of 'analysis' about the Internet is another example of a-historical hyperbole. Don't get me wrong: I'm obviously not one of those deluded souls who believes that the Internet is a passing fad. However, I do submit that the changes wrought by the Internet are both more familiar and less fantastical than the conventional wisdom would have us believe. The Economist's recent survey on the Internet and new media (http://www.economist.com/surveys/displayStory.cfm?story_id=6794156) correctly put the Internet 'revolution' in perspective. Far from rejecting its' legitimacy as a revolutionary force, the survey made the point that we've experienced such a revolution before and that this one would follow a similar pattern. The magazine likened the Internet's arrival to the emergence of moveable type in the middle 15th century, an era where a new technology democratized knowledge (the Gutenberg Bible), "turbo-charged an information age" (The Renaissance) and set in motion forces that would reverberate centuries later (the modern ubiquity of mass media).

What The Economist did was to root a contemporary event or phenomenon into proper historical context. In effect, it subjected the Long Tail to the Long View, and in so doing gave us a critical and much-needed perspective on the present. As both the examples of globalization and the Internet show, what society perceives - and anoints - as new and never-before-seen is often neither. What too frequently is lacking is the intellectual reflex and rigor to look at the 'new' through the prism of the 'old'. Society would benefit, it seems to me, if more futurists acted as archeologists and the past informed more of our knowledge of the present.

Fortunately, History has been staging a bit of a comeback lately. With many of the complex conundrums that confound us today - from terrorism and the degradation of the environment to the war in Iraq - people appear to be turning to history to help make sense of it all. Little by little, historical perspectives weave their way into the public discourse on our modern maladies. Al-Qaeda is less and less seen as a terror cell that came to life on 9/11, but more properly put into context as a movement that arose from the 1980s Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and catalyzed again by the stationing of American troops in Saudi Arabia at the end of the first Gulf War. The phenomenon of global warming was catapulted into the public consciousness by Al Gore's powerful documentary An Inconvenient Truth because it demonstrated that the Earth's temperatures were rising at a rate unseen in human history. The civil unrest in Iraq was once viewed as either the death throws of a recently-toppled totalitarian regime or the desperate final match strikes of a foreign-backed insurgency seeking to enflame the country. Today, it is seen through the prism of a millenia-old schism in Islam between Sunni and Shi'a - the contemporary boiling-over of a sectarian struggle that simmered for decades under Saddam's iron rule.

Even self-avowed anti-historians and current affairs columnists are looking to the past for answers now. The famously anti-intellectual George W. Bush was recently reading, at Henry Kissinger's suggestion, Alistair Horne's A Savage War of Peace, about France's experiences in a guerrilla war against Muslims in Algeria in the mid 1950s, to help frame his foreign policy towards Iraq. In a stark illustration of how 'hip' historical analysis has become, New York Times opinion writer Nicholas Kristof recently reached as far back as Virgil and the travails of Thucydides to offer the appropriate historical analogy to W's Iraq adventure (http://select.nytimes.com/2007/01/23/opinion/23kristof.html?th&emc=th).

History, like the height of hem lines, comes in and out of fashion. After all, it wasn't that long ago (1989) that Francis Fukuyama famously wrote about the 'The End of History'. George Will more recently mused sardonically about the Fukuyaman viewpoint - and the atypical period of peace, progress and prosperity that spawned it - as our collective 'vacation from history.' That holiday ended abruptly, on or about September 11, 2001. Thereafter, the world faced sufficiently chilling and complex challenges that we have increasingly turned to history for context, comfort and courses of action. This is as it should be. George Santayana's famous dictum that "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" is as true today as it was a century ago when it was written. These days, however, his aphorism could be updated to say that those who do not listen to the past are condemned to misunderstand the present. Simply put, yesterday gives us perspective on today and a chance at properly explaining tomorrow. After all, as my friend Obi put it so well, there is very little that is truly new anymore ...